Sunday, April 23, 2023



The Supreme Court will soon decide on cities pushing an extreme climate agenda

Municipalities like Boulder, San Francisco and Baltimore, among others, have been filing claims against oil and gas companies, seeking damages they allege are directly attributable to the firms’ actions.

But holders of these cities’ bonds could be forgiven for being surprised by these lawsuits.

Why?

Because the ambiguous claims these cities made to their bondholders belie the specific nature of the claims they later made to courts.

In their bond disclosures, these cities all acknowledge they’re unable to forecast with any degree of certainty climate change’s adverse effects and the science underlying their assumptions is evolving.

Fair enough. But contrast this with the incredibly specific claims in these cities’ lawsuits.

In 2017, San Francisco’s city attorney, Dennis Herrera, filed a lawsuit in state court against five energy companies, alleging they are responsible for very specific effects of climate change and should pay for infrastructure such as sea walls to deal with its ongoing and future consequences.

The lawsuit’s claim about predicting the effects of climate change comes into serious question when the city attorney’s bond-issuing employer has stated it cannot accurately determine the extent of climate change for its investors.

In a 2018 petition in Texas state court, Exxon alleged the “stark and irreconcilable conflict” between the municipalities’ allegations in the lawsuits and their disclosures in bond offerings indicated the suits were brought “not because of a bona fide belief in any tortious conduct by the defendants or actual damage to their jurisdictions, but instead to coerce ExxonMobil and others operating in the Texas energy sector to adopt policies aligned with those favored by local politicians in California.”

Its petition was denied, but the concern about the “stark and irreconcilable conflict” has quietly simmered ever since — and for good reason.

Disclosures in other areas have been a source of angst for muni bondholders.

In 2016, the Securities and Exchange Commission issued a cease and desist order against the City of Boulder for misstating that it had complied with prior agreements to provide continuing disclosure to its investors.

What prompted renewed interest in this issue was not just the reexamination of bond risks after Credit Suisse’s failure but also the solicitor general’s recent recommendation to the Supreme Court, urging the justices to reject ExxonMobil and Suncor’s petition for their case to be heard in federal rather than state court.

Credit Suisse’s AT1 investors have reason to be upset but not necessarily all that surprised.

After all, those bonds were yielding 9.75%, suggesting the risks were high.

For comparison, the average yield on ostensibly much safer 10-year muni bonds is about 2.49%.

But what if, in addition to the risks laid out in disclosure documents, Credit Suisse had been aware of other material risks it had failed to disclose to its bondholders?

Well, that would be securities fraud.

Might the same hold true for these municipalities doing the bidding of trial lawyers pushing an extreme climate agenda?

To the extent that these cities have a much greater degree of certainty about the risks they face, have those risks been adequately described to all audiences, investors and the courts alike?

And while these lawsuits seem meritless, one hopes the Supreme Court concludes at least that they ought to remain in federal court — where they belong.

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Chefs and Restaurateurs Win Big as Trump-Appointed Judge Leads Unanimous Panel in Overturning Gas Stove Ban

The California Restaurant Association has been doing a slow burn since the city of Berkeley cooked up a scheme in 2019 to ban natural gas hookups to new buildings.

But the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals put chefs’ favorite appliance back on the menu — at least for now — when they overturned the ban Monday, USA Today reported.

Berkeley’s ordinance went into effect in 2020, making the San Francisco Bay Area community the first municipality to take such a step. Many others have since enacted similar laws.

“The measure, which took effect in 2020 to cheers from environmentalists, was intended to reduce emissions of greenhouse gasses that contribute to global warming,” the Associated Press reported.

But restaurant owners were not among those cheering.

“Natural gas appliances are crucial for restaurants to operate effectively and efficiently, as they allow for a wide variety of cuisines and innovations in the restaurant industry,” California Restaurant Association President and CEO Jot Condie said in a statement published on the organization’s website.

Condie argued that cities and states “are not equipped to regulate the energy use or energy efficiency of appliances that businesses and homeowners have chosen; energy policy and conservation is an issue with national scope and national security implications. This ordinance, as well as the solution it seeks, is an overreaching measure beyond the scope of any city.”

That’s the stance the organization’s lawyers argued before the court, and the Ninth Circuit agreed.

The court ruled that Berkeley’s ordinance was preempted by the federal Energy Policy and Conservation Act, Bloomberg Law reported.

The court ruled that “Berkeley’s ban on natural gas infrastructure in new buildings is ‘clearly outside the preemption provision of the EPCA,’” according to the outlet.

Judge Patrick Bumatay, an appointee of former President Donald Trump, wrote in an opinion that Berkeley’s action was not permissible in light of the language in the EPCA.

“Put simply, by enacting EPCA, Congress ensured that States and localities could not prevent consumers from using covered products in their homes, kitchens and businesses,” he wrote.

Sarah O. Jorgensen, attorney for the restaurant association, said in a statement:

“The Ninth Circuit’s ruling today underscores the importance of a consistent national energy policy, which was Congress’ intent the whole time.

“Cities and states should not be permitted to overrule energy decisions that affect the country as a whole.

“The panel’s unanimous decision that Berkeley’s ban on natural gas piping is preempted by EPCA sets an important precedent for future cases, especially with other cities considering similar bans or restrictions on the use of natural gas.”

Despite the victory, gas-stove proponents still face a heated battle to continue using their appliance of choice, according to USA Today.

“The Berkeley ordinance was not a building code requirement, so the appeals court ruling will only affect other municipalities that used the same type of ordinance and only in Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon and Washington state,” the outlet reported.

“Most municipalities that have such bans in place use building energy codes, which the appeals court specifically said was allowable.”

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The Real Reason the Left Is Banning Gas-Powered Cars

Last summer, California Governor Gavin Newsom issued a directive to his wealthy constituents not to plug in their electric vehicles. It was an emergency. The grid was overloading, and if EVs weren't taken off their chargers, the system would melt down. For many, this meant being effectively stranded, but they still had the option to call a gas-powered Uber for a ride.

The plea to unplug, a regular and repeated occurrence each summer, came at the same time Newsom signed a new rule to outlaw all gas-powered vehicles by 2035.

"We can solve this climate crisis if we focus on the big, bold steps necessary to cut pollution. California now has a groundbreaking, world-leading plan to achieve 100 percent zero-emission vehicle sales by 2035," Newsom declared in a statement, calling on other states and the federal government to follow his lead. "This plan's yearly targets — 35 percent ZEV sales by 2026, 68 percent by 2030, and 100 percent by 2035 — provide our road map to reducing dangerous carbon emissions and moving away from fossil fuels."

To put it bluntly, these directives for change are suicidal — especially given politicians like Newsom know how quickly the grid gets overwhelmed.

To the contrary, Elon Musk, the creator of the most successful electric car company in the world, warns that the United States — not to mention the rest of the globe — isn't ready for a rapid transition to electric.

"Realistically, I think we need to use oil and gas in the short term because otherwise, civilization will crumble," Musk said last fall during a conference in Norway. "One of the biggest challenges the world has ever faced is the transition to sustainable energy and to a sustainable economy. That will take some decades to complete."

In addition, Americans can't afford the move, and the sales numbers at car dealerships across the country prove it. How will regular people get to work when their affordable, gas-powered vehicles are illegal or no longer available for purchase and repair?

"Only 19% of U.S. adults say it's 'very' or 'extremely' likely they would purchase an electric vehicle the next time they buy a car, according to the poll, and 22% say it's somewhat likely. About half — 47% — say it's not likely they would go electric," a recent survey from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago shows. "Six in 10 said the high cost is a major reason they wouldn't and about a quarter cited it as a minor reason. Only 16% said the high cost would not be a factor in rejecting the EV."

Musk is right. Civilization will crumble without oil and gas, so why are the Biden administration and their globalist, elite allies trying to accelerate the collapse? If U.S. infrastructure isn't capable of handling the switch to electric, and Americans can't afford to buy electric cars, how is this new and alternative utopia going to come to fruition?

To critically thinking people, these facts don't logically add up to a good faith effort to save the environment. Instead, it raises red flags about the true intention of the rapid shift. This is especially true given those who are pushing the shift most aggressively. John Kerry and Bill Gates, for example, aren't changing their own habits of private jet use, SUVs and luxury, living in mansions or ornate government buildings. So what's going on here?

Catastrophes enable government control. Look no further than the recent COVID-19 pandemic, which was extended for years by bureaucrats and politicians interested in exercising power over the population as long as possible, for proof. The coming government-inflicted mobility crisis will be similar to the pandemic response, with directives about who can work, when, how long, where they can travel, whether you really need to travel to church and much more. A lack of gas-powered vehicles means forced reliance on public transportation. It will cripple life in rural America, forcing moves into the cities. Social credit scores regarding travel, like the ones we're already seeing when purchasing airline tickets, will certainly be implemented.

The government-mandated move to electric vehicles has nothing to do with the environment and everything to do with the left's vision for America: tyrannical government control. Time will tell if the country is willing to go along with it.

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Earth Day at 53

None of the eco-doomsday predictions have come true

From predicting ecological collapse and the end of civilisation to warnings that the world is running out of oil, all environmental doomsday predictions of the first Earth Day in 1970 have turned out to be flat out wrong.

More than three decades before Greta Thunberg was born — the Swedish environmental activist on climate change — more than 20 million Americans participated in the first Earth Day on April 22, 1970.

We now look back at quotes from Earth Day, Then and Now,” by Ronald Bailey of the spectacularly wrong apocalyptic predictions from Earth Day 1970.

Considering the current doomsday predictions scaremonger activists are verbalising about global warming that will result in the demise of civilisation within the next decade, many of those unscientific 1970 predictions are being reincarnated on today’s social and news media outlets.

Many of the same are being regurgitated today, but the best prediction from the first earth day five decades ago, yes 50 years ago, was that the “the pending ice age as earth had been cooling since 1950 and that the temperature would be 11 degrees cooler by the year 2000”.

The 1970’s were a lousy decade. Embarrassing movies and dreadful music reflected the national doomsday mood following an unpopular war, endless political scandals, and a faltering economy.

The first Earth Day was celebrated in 1970 — okay, “celebrated” doesn’t capture the funereal tone of the event. The events (organized in part by then hippie and now convicted murderer Ira Einhorn) predicted death, destruction and disease unless we did exactly as progressives commanded.data.

Behold the coming apocalypse as predicted on and around Earth Day, 1970:

1. “Civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.” — Harvard biologist George Wald

2. “We are in an environmental crisis which threatens the survival of this nation, and of the world as a suitable place of human habitation.” — Washington University biologist Barry Commoner

3. “Man must stop pollution and conserve his resources, not merely to enhance existence but to save the race from intolerable deterioration and possible extinction.” — New York Times editorial

4. “Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make. The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.” — Stanford University biologist Paul Ehrlich

5. “Most of the people who are going to die in the greatest cataclysm in the history of man have already been born… [By 1975] some experts feel that food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Other experts, more optimistic, think the ultimate food-population collision will not occur until the decade of the 1980s.” — Paul Ehrlich

6. “It is already too late to avoid mass starvation,” — Denis Hayes, Chief organizer for Earth Day

7. “Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions…. By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.” — North Texas State University professor Peter Gunter

8. “In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution… by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half.” — Life magazine

9. “At the present rate of nitrogen buildup, it’s only a matter of time before light will be filtered out of the atmosphere and none of our land will be usable.” — Ecologist Kenneth Watt

10. “Air pollution…is certainly going to take hundreds of thousands of lives in the next few years alone.” — Paul Ehrlich

11. “By the year 2000, if present trends continue, we will be using up crude oil at such a rate… that there won’t be any more crude oil. You’ll drive up to the pump and say, ‘Fill ‘er up, buddy,’ and he’ll say, ‘I am very sorry, there isn’t any.’” — Ecologist Kenneth Watt

12. “[One] theory assumes that the earth’s cloud cover will continue to thicken as more dust, fumes, and water vapor are belched into the atmosphere by industrial smokestacks and jet planes. Screened from the sun’s heat, the planet will cool, the water vapor will fall and freeze, and a new Ice Age will be born.” — Newsweek magazine

13. “The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.” — Kenneth Watt

History seems to repeat itself as there will be a disproportionately influential group of doomsters predicting that the future–and the present–never looked so bleak. I guess we’ll need to critique the 2020 doomsday predictions in the year 2050 and see if they were any better than those from the first Earth Day 50 years ago.

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My other blogs. Main ones below

http://dissectleft.blogspot.com (DISSECTING LEFTISM )

http://edwatch.blogspot.com (EDUCATION WATCH)

http://pcwatch.blogspot.com (POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH)

http://australian-politics.blogspot.com (AUSTRALIAN POLITICS)

http://snorphty.blogspot.com/ (TONGUE-TIED)

http://jonjayray.com/blogall.html More blogs

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Friday, April 21, 2023



'Total Madness': Germany Shuts Country's Remaining Nuclear Power Plants

Amid an ongoing energy crisis, Germany closed its final three nuclear power plants in a move critics say is “total madness.”

The Saturday closure of Emsland, Neckarwestheim II, and Isar II, planned over a decade ago as part of the country’s transition to more renewable energy, has been sharply criticized.

As energy prices spiked last year due to the war in Ukraine, some members of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government got cold feet about closing the nuclear plants as planned on 31 December 2022.

In a compromise, Mr Scholz agreed to a one-time extension of the deadline, but insisted that the final countdown would happen on 15 April.

Bavaria's conservative governor, Markus Soeder, who backed the original deadline set in 2011 when Angela Merkel was Germany's chancellor, this week called the shutdown "an absolute mistaken decision".

He said: "While many countries in the world are even expanding nuclear power, Germany is doing the opposite. "We need every possible form of energy. Otherwise, we risk higher electricity prices and businesses moving away."

Advocates of nuclear power worldwide have criticised the German shutdown, aware that the action by Europe's biggest economy could deal a blow to a technology they tout as a clean and reliable alternative to fossil fuels.

The German government has acknowledged that, in the short term, the country will have to rely more heavily on polluting coal and natural gas to meet its energy needs, even as it takes steps to massively ramp up electricity production from solar and wind. (Sky News)

Tesla founder Elon Musk called the decision "total madness" and a major "national security risk," but psychologist Jordan Peterson said "crazy is the point."

But crazy is the point. Anti-nuclear is not a pro-environment stance; it is an anti-human, anti-industrial stance. So crazy is a feature not a bug.

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GREENIE ROUNDUP FROM AUSTRALIA

Three articles below

Govt to spend $150 million on reef water quality woes

Farm and other runoff affects only close-in reefs. The Barrier reef is not affected

The federal government will spend $150 million on a program to boost water quality on the Great Barrier Reef after a UN mission said the site should be listed as in danger.

The program will repair land in catchments that are dumping large amounts of fine sediment into rivers discharging water to the reef, smothering coral, killing seagrass and increasing pollution loads.

It’s part of a $1.2 billion spend on reef health previously announced by the Albanese government, which has promised to fight an in-danger listing for the site.

The recommendation to list the reef as a World Heritage site in danger came late last year. It was based on what UN experts saw when they visited Australia about a year ago, when the Morrison government was still in power.

The UN report took Australia to task for not doing enough to tackle the key threats of climate change, poor water quality and harmful fishing activities.

In announcing the program on Thursday, Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek said the $150 million would fund work including fencing, revegetation, grazing management of cattle, and structural works to stabilise gullies and riverbanks.

“Sediment can coat seagrass beds, it can kill off seagrass, it can affect the health and even be responsible for the loss of animals and plants that make our reef special,” Ms Plibersek told reporters in Townsville.

“By dealing with sediment we are of course restoring the riverbanks and creek banks that’s good for the land, and we are protecting the reef from one of the greatest threats identified for the future of the reef.”

She said catchments along Queensland’s coastline will be targeted, with funding allocated pending the complexity of each individual matter.

Traditional owners and Indigenous groups will help identify priority projects.

“What we’d like to see is land care organisations, traditional owner groups and others come forward with proposals that will make a significant difference to the quality of the water flowing into the reef,” Ms Plibersek added.

The program will be carried out in collaboration with the Queensland government, which is spending $75 million on its own water quality program.

Special envoy to the Great Barrier Reef, Sentator Nita Green, said the funding is pivotal in rectifying inaction over the last decade.

“We are taking the divisiveness and the debate out of this conversation…to make sure that we can invest in our land holders, in our farmers and our traditional owners to make such a big difference to the Great Barrier Reef for generations to come.”

In its report last year, the UN mission said Australia’s efforts were not sufficient to protect the reef’s outstanding universal values.

It found management frameworks, strategies and plans had not been fully implemented, particularly in relation to water quality and fishing.

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Beetaloo Basin cattle company loses Supreme Court bid to stop fracking exploration

A gas company will be able to continue exploration in the Beetaloo Basin after a cattle company's appeal to stop the activity was dismissed by the Northern Territory Supreme Court.

Rallen Australia, owned by the Langenhoven-Ravazotti family, had sought to overturn a February 2022 NT Civil and Administrative Tribunal decision that allowed Tamboran Resources' subsidiary Sweetpea Petroleum to come onto Tanumbirini Station to explore for gas.

Justice Peter Barr dismissed all eight grounds of appeal that Rallen's lawyers had argued.

The case was seen as a precedent for legal interactions between pastoralists and gas companies because it was the first to test mandatory land access laws introduced in the NT in 2021.

Tamboran chief executive and managing director Joel Riddle said in a statement that he was "pleased with the NT Supreme Court's ruling" and was looking forward "to working closely with all our stakeholders in progressing the development of the Beetaloo Basin in a safe and responsible manner".

"As the first challenge of the NT government's changes to the legislation and regulations permitting access for exploration purposes, the decision sets an important precedent for future operations across the Beetaloo Basin," he said.

"We are pleased to lead the way by securing this important precedent and ensure that the benefits of the decision will extend to many stakeholders."

Rallen has fiercely opposed any gas exploration on its properties and director Pierre Langenhoven previously declared the pastoral and gas industry "cannot coexist".

Mr Langenhoven said Rallen would "consider this decision and our appeal options" for the Supreme Court decision.

"We are disappointed in the decision, as the land access agreement provides minimum protections to pastoralists and puts all the risk and all the cost onto the pastoralist," he said in a statement.

"This sadly sets a precedent for poor quality and punitive agreements moving forward."

Since then, Mr Langenhoven said he felt like he had "lost control" of the part of Tanumbirini within Sweetpea's permit area. "I cannot protect the station and my cattle from the impacts of fracking, all I can do is monitor and seek compensation after the damage is done," he said.

Rallen Australia will receive a minimum of $15,000 compensation per gas well drilled on the property as a part of its land access agreement with Sweetpea.

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Electric dreams still have long way to run

The government’s electric vehicle and lower emissions strategy confirms a golden rule of the net-zero transition that unfailingly hits the poor and favours the rich.

That rule is to make existing technologies more expensive to make the ones favoured by advocates appear reasonable by comparison. This is true for electricity, where increasingly the cost is being hidden in consolidated revenue through cascading subsidy payments both to producers and, increasingly, end users.

The dream of a world in which motorists get about in electric-powered cars confirms the trend.

Ideally, a single price on greenhouse gas emissions would remove the need for ad hoc policies. But in the absence of this we are left with state, local and federal schemes, some of which equate to a carbon price of thousands of dollars per tonne.

Electric vehicle schemes are at the top of the tree in terms of cost per tonne but nowhere near enough to satisfy the green groups who think more should be done to promote their use.

The government’s latest policy is in addition to generous tax breaks and exemptions. Chris Bowen has set a target for six outcomes: a greater choice of EVs, a reduction in transport emissions, more charging stations, an increase in domestic manufacturing and recycling with the ultimate goal to make it cheaper for people to run their vehicles.

For this to happen, however, existing technologies will inevitably become more expensive, to compensate.

The plan to introduce a fuel efficiency standard follows what is happening in other parts of the world. The US has just introduced a scheme calibrated ultimately to make EVs the only reasonable choice to make on financial grounds.

The EPA is using its authority under the Clean Air Act to regulate vehicle emissions with the aim of making EVs account for about two-thirds of car sales in 2032, up from 6 per cent last year.

The EPA justifies its intervention, which will increase costs, because of subsidies that are available under President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act.

There are no details yet on where the government’s new policy will land but EV lobby groups are telling Bowen to go hard.

Attempts to tighten emission laws have a troubled history in Australia. This is because car makers will be forced to increase the cost of the cars people want to buy to subsidise the ones they presently can’t afford or don’t want to drive. The emissions target is for the overall fleet sold so, in effect, internal combustion car buyers will be forced to subsidise those who want to drive EVs.

The hope is that car makers will make more less expensive EV models available. But much of the cost of EVs is in the battery, which are getting more expensive.

Environmentally, charging an EV today still requires plenty of coal-fired power.

There is no doubt the driving world is changing. The big selling point for emissions standards is that without new rules Australia risks becoming a dumping ground for less efficient models the rest of the world won’t take. Everybody wants to breathe fresh air.

But it is all part of a transport vehicle transition with an as yet unknown destination. Europe has pulled back from an outright ban on internal combustion engines in favour of low-emissions fuels. The US is under pressure to do the same. The best that can be said is an emissions standard leaves the door open for new technologies.

This is a journey that still has a long way yet to run.

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My other blogs. Main ones below

http://dissectleft.blogspot.com (DISSECTING LEFTISM )

http://edwatch.blogspot.com (EDUCATION WATCH)

http://pcwatch.blogspot.com (POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH)

http://australian-politics.blogspot.com (AUSTRALIAN POLITICS)

http://snorphty.blogspot.com/ (TONGUE-TIED)

http://jonjayray.com/blogall.html More blogs

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Thursday, April 20, 2023


DOE wants to ban gas stoves

The Department of Energy (DOE) is proposing to revise their standards for natural gas stoves. The practical effect of the new standards is banning gas stoves by regulation and switching people from gas to electric stoves. The DOE itself admits that electricity costs 3.5 times the cost of natural gas per energy unit - $42 versus $12 for natural gas per million BTU, so the new rules will necessarily increase cooking costs greatly.

On April 17th, the CO2 Coalition filed an extensive 23-page comment for the DOE on these economically destructive and freedom-crippling regulations. In it we conclude that:

“…the scientific method proves there is no reliable science supporting the proposed standards based on the proposition that electric stoves are more energy efficient than gas stoves” and the estimates “used in the proposal are fatally flawed science.”

“Thus, the DOE standards must not be adopted and the IWG SCC Estimates must not be used. If adopted, the DOE standards should be ruled invalid by the courts.”

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A Texas-Sized Energy Fiasco

What a mess. Renewable subsidies have distorted and destabilized the Texas electric grid, which resulted in a week-long power outage during the February 2021 freeze. To prevent more blackouts, Republicans in the Lone Star State now plan to subsidize gas power plants.

The Texas Senate last week passed putative energy reforms to “level the playing field,” as Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick put it. Texans will now spend tens of billions of dollars to bolster natural-gas plants that provide reliable power but can’t make money because of competition from subsidized renewable energy.

Federal tax credits have encouraged an oversupply of wind power, which Lone Star State Republicans assisted last decade by charging rate payers $7 billion to build thousands of miles of transmission lines from West Texas and the Panhandle to big cities. Solar and wind supply about 30% of Texas power on average but sometimes can produce more than half.

Wind generators pocket a tax credit for every kilowatt hour they produce no matter if the grid needs it. A surfeit of wind is increasingly driving wholesale power prices negative—i.e., generators have to pay to offload their power. Wind producers can still make money because of the tax credits, but fossil-fuel plants that provide baseload power can’t.

Baseload plants were developed on the financial assumption that they’d run 85% to 90% of the time, but many aren’t because they are being squeezed by renewables. Coal plants are closing, and gas generators are at risk. Too few new gas plants are being built to support a growing population and industry. As a result, power is becoming unreliable, especially during extreme weather.

The state Senate’s answer is to create a Texas Energy Insurance Program to support gas generators to backstop renewables. The state would commission gas plants with as much as 10 gigawatts—enough to power about two million homes during peak demand—to run only during grid emergencies. Keeping them idle at other times isn’t efficient, but letting them compete in the wholesale power market could make it even harder for existing generators to make money.

The Senate Finance Committee set aside $10 billion in its budget proposal to fund part of the cost for these emergency plants, but the legislation also proposes charging consumers. An insurance program would finance zero-interest rate loans to existing gas generators to maintain their equipment, which they are struggling to do owing to negative power prices.

Another Senate bill would create financial incentives for “peaker” gas plants that could ramp up on demand. Yet building peaker gas plants that run only 10% of the time costs about three times more than a baseload gas plant that operates 85% to 90% of the time.

To sum up: Texas Republicans are trying to fix the enormous inefficiencies caused by federal and state renewable subsidies with state subsidies that cause more inefficiencies.

Texas’s grid mess offers a portent for the rest of the U.S. and another illustration of how the Inflation Reduction Act will cost Americans much more than the $391 billion that Democrats claimed. States may have to subsidize backup power generation to keep the lights on. Subsidies that create market distortions invariably lead to more subsidies and more distortions. California couldn’t have done it better.

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Ignore the Earth Day hype: To save the planet, invest in fossil fuels

By John Stossel

Earth Day is Saturday! Hooray? “Saving humanity from the climate crisis,” says EarthDay.org, requires us to “push away from the dirty fossil fuel economy.”

Sounds logical. But my latest video explains why doing that is cruel to poor people.

“Three billion people in the world still use less electricity than a typical refrigerator,” explains Alex Epstein, author of “The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels.” If they’re going to have “their first well-paying jobs,” “their first consistent supply of clean water,” “a modern life,” “that’s going to depend on fossil fuels.”

But the greens say we have a better replacement: wind and solar power.

So I push back at Epstein: “Solar is getting cheaper all the time. It’s already cheaper than fossil fuels.”

“When we look at solar and wind around the world,” he answers, “it always correlates to rising prices and declining reliability. Why? Because solar and wind are intermittent. At any time, they can go near zero.”

That means wind turbines and solar farms don’t replace fossil-fuel plants. You have to build them in addition to fossil-fuel plants.

“We spent trillions of dollars in subsidies and mandates putting solar panels and wind turbines everywhere,” Epstein points out, “Yet we’re still having shortages of fossil fuels.”

Germany invested heavily in solar and wind power. Elites around the world praised German politicians for creating record renewable power. But that didn’t work so well when the winds slowed and clouds appeared.

Germany has even turned to coal for energy. Coal! Coal is the filthiest fuel. Yet Germany now imports coal from Russia and America.

OK, say the activists, even if renewables have problems, soon we’ll have better batteries so we can bank wind and solar energy and store it until it’s needed!

Batteries are “getting continually better and cheaper,” I say to Epstein. Backing up all solar and wind with batteries would cost “multiples of global” gross domestic product, responds Epstein. “This is a total fantasy.”

“You say unaffordable,” I push back, “but who’s to determine what that is?”

“The general narrative is we’re destroying the planet with fossil fuels, so who cares how much energy costs?” Epstein says. “The truth is, the planet is only livable because of low-cost, reliable energy from fossil fuels.”

Before fossil fuels, “Life expectancy was below 30. Income was basically nonexistent. The population was stagnant because people had such a high death rate. The basic reason is that nature is not a very livable place for human beings.”

By contrast, thanks to cheap fossil fuels, “We make it unnaturally safe by producing all forms of climate protection. We produce drought relief . . . sturdy buildings. We produce heat when it’s cold, we produce cold when it’s hot. We have this amazing, productive ability. That’s the only reason we experience the planet as livable.”

Unfortunately, because of today’s foolish hysteria over fossil fuels, energy prices will climb. “When you threaten an industry, you scare investors and producers. Massive threats to industry have definitely cut down production.”

America’s affluent protesters can afford the higher prices. But poor people will suffer. Allowing billions of the world’s poor to live a modern life requires energy from gas, oil and even coal.

The United Nations now puts pressure on countries to stop using fossil fuels. Governments in poor countries, eager for UN handouts, often listen.

“Their whole population is going to suffer,” warns Epstein. “People who have by far the least in the world [are] most subject to today’s international pressure against fossil fuels.”

If we want more of the poorest people to have decent lives, we need to invest in both fossil fuels and nuclear power.

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Service station owners are calling on the Federal Government to help them install EV charging bays on their forecourts

Another huge cost of the climate myth

Australian Association of Convenience Stores chief executive Theo Foukkare said it cost an estimated half a million dollars to upgrade a site’s electricity grid to accommodate EV chargers.

“We’ve got thousands of AACS members across the nation that want to go green but they’re not able to get their hands on half a million dollars on their own,” he said.

He said his members were supportive of the government’s new EV strategy, released this week.

“However, we really think a government funded program that helps small business owners to pay for these critical upgrades is essential to achieve that,” he said.

The recent surge in EV take-up – sales are up 150 per cent in the first three months of this year – meant there weren’t enough recharge stations to cope with existing drivers.

“Public infrastructure charging is being rolled out slowly by the federal and state and territory governments, however, most only include slow charging equipment. That means they can only be used by two cars at once, potentially leaving other drivers waiting hours before they are even able to plug in,” Mr Foukkare said.

A spokeswoman for Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen said small businesses could apply for a grant from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency ARENA, which had $70 million set aside to help businesses develop charging infrastructure.

Mr Bowen announced the latest round of grants yesterday and said infrastructure funding was a “critical step to make electric vehicles more accessible for all Australians”.

He said the latest funding round would make it easier to install the right type of public charging infrastructure and give Australians better access to facilities, particularly in remote and regional communities.

“Transport costs are a huge part of household budgets, and getting the charging infrastructure in place for electric vehicles is critical to ensuring households have a real choice when it comes to picking their next car,” Mr Bowen said.

But Mr Foukkare said that slower charging stations being rolled out by governments often lacked access to basic amenities.

“Australian motorists expect amenities like toilets, a place to sit and eat or enjoy a coffee, free Wi-Fi and even somewhere to do a small grocery top up,” he said.

“Our members already have those facilities – and they employ more than 70,000 people across Australia – so they could certainly do with the extra custom.

He said service station EV chargers could also address a “charging void” for the 25 per cent of Australian drivers who don’t have off street parking.

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My other blogs. Main ones below

http://dissectleft.blogspot.com (DISSECTING LEFTISM )

http://edwatch.blogspot.com (EDUCATION WATCH)

http://pcwatch.blogspot.com (POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH)

http://australian-politics.blogspot.com (AUSTRALIAN POLITICS)

http://snorphty.blogspot.com/ (TONGUE-TIED)

http://jonjayray.com/blogall.html More blogs

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Wednesday, April 19, 2023



Federal appeals court strikes down Democratic city’s natural gas ban backed by Biden admin

A federal appeals court ruled unanimously Monday that a natural gas ban proposed by the City of Berkeley, California, would illegally circumvent federal law.

The US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit ruled that Berkeley’s natural gas piping ban, which the city’s government passed in 2019 as part of its climate agenda, violated the federal Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) of 1975.

By banning gas pipes in new building construction, the city effectively violated the EPCA which prevents local regulations from impacting the energy use of natural gas appliances.

“Instead of directly banning those appliances in new buildings, Berkeley took a more circuitous route to the same result,” Judge Patrick Bumatay wrote in the opinion of the court Monday. “It enacted a building code that prohibits natural gas piping into those buildings, rendering the gas appliances useless.”

“In sum, Berkeley can’t bypass preemption by banning natural gas piping within buildings rather than banning natural gas products themselves,” he continued in the ruling. “EPCA thus preempts the Ordinance’s effect on covered products.”

In July 2019, Berkeley’s city council passed the ban which was set to go into effect in January 2020, making the city the first in the nation to approve such a measure.

Berkeley Councilwoman Kate Harrison, who authored the legislation, said at the time that it was part of the city’s effort to take “more drastic action” on climate change and curb greenhouse gas emissions.

However, months after it was approved, the California Restaurant Association (CRA) filed a federal lawsuit challenging the city’s ability to pass a law banning new natural gas hookups.

After a lower court ruled in favor of Berkeley in July 2021, the CRA filed an appeal, leading to Monday’s ruling.

“The Ninth Circuit has unanimously affirmed the central issue in this case: local ordinances cannot override federal law,” CRA President and CEO Jot Condie said in a statement on Monday. “Cities and states are not equipped to regulate the energy use or energy efficiency of appliances that businesses and homeowners have chosen; energy policy and conservation is an issue with national scope and national security implications.”

“This ordinance, as well as the solution it seeks, is an overreaching measure beyond the scope of any city,” Condie added. “Natural gas appliances are crucial for restaurants to operate effectively and efficiently, as they allow for a wide variety of cuisines and innovations in the restaurant industry. Cities and states cannot ignore federal law in an effort to constrain consumer choice, and it is encouraging that the Ninth Circuit upheld this standard.”

The case drew the attention of industry groups that supported CRA — including the American Gas Association and Air Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute — and environmental groups and other jurisdictions across the country that supported Berkeley’s ordinance — including the National League of Cities, California, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Washington, DC, and New York City.

In February 2022, the Department of Justice filed a brief in support of Berkely’s law, arguing the lower court was correct to uphold the city’s natural gas hookup ban.

The ruling Monday, meanwhile, comes as the Department of Energy continues to consider regulations curbing which types of natural gas stoves manufacturers can sell.

And it comes after a President Biden-appointed member of the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) made headlines when he told Bloomberg in early January that a gas stove ban was “on the table” given the product’s purported impacts on health.

The White House later denounced a ban, but the CPSC said it would proceed with taking in public feedback on gas stove safety.

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Warmism good for China

The Green Energy Revolution is strengthening the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and weakening the United States. Based on an ideology that believes reducing carbon dioxide in

the atmosphere will reduce or eliminate climate change, billions of taxpayer dollars are being spent on lithium batteries, electric vehicles (EVs), windmills, and solar panels.

The EV ideology pursued by the Biden administration “could imperil national security,” states a top Democratic donor, Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co. The CCP’s unrestricted warfare strategy includes economic warfare to dominate the world’s batteries, rare earth, semiconductors, and EVs.

The hysteria over climate change is driving green energy ideology. Science has not proven that increased carbon dioxide leads to global warming and, if so, what are the dangers to humanity? More carbon dioxide might lead to greater plant growth and increased food supply. Warmer temperatures might free up northern lands in Canada and Russia for more farming. Warmer temperatures can reduce deaths; more people die of cold than of heat.

Computer models project various climate change scenarios, but such scenarios should be taken with a grain of skepticism. How accurate is your local weather station’s forecasting for a week? And we are supposed to believe a 20-year projection based on suspect data? For over four billion years, the climate has been changing and continents moving. As recently as 20,000 years ago, northern parts of the present-day United States were covered in 5,000 feet of ice. What caused that ice to melt?

The U.S. government is spending billions of dollars subsidizing green carbon-free energy for EVs, windmills, and solar panels. All are unreliable, cost-inefficient, environmentally toxic, and a poor allocation of the nation’s resources. And while the U.S. green agenda is driving inflation and weakening national and economic security, it is laying waste to important economic segments in America---------the automobile and energy industries.

Ford Motor Company recently announced a $3.1 billion loss in the first quarter of this year due to EV costs and chip supply chain issues. Ford predicts electric cars will be profitable in a few years and plans to make 2 million by 2025. That would be an incredible achievement, considering Ford sold only 61,575 cars in 2022 and had sold 3,624 cars as of February 2023.

General Motors (GM) is asking for the voluntary separation of 5,000 employees to save $1.5 billion as it invests $35 billion in EVs between now and 2025. GM plans to sell one million electric cars by 2025, even though it sold only 40,000 in 2022. The so-called affordable GM Bolt sells for $30,000 yet loses $9,000 for the company. The only way the automobile industry can survive is through massive government subsidies, tax credits, and government mandates, such as in California, where in 2035, you can only buy EVs. (Fascism, anyone?)

Millions of American jobs will be lost because of the government's central planning Marxists establishing unattainable regulations and mandates. Industries associated with energy and automobiles will suffer closures and bankruptcies. Society will suffer from increased unemployment and mental depression. Increased family fractures, alcoholism, and drug use will follow.

Consumers don’t want electric vehicles because they are too expensive and too unreliable. Internal combustion engines work fine, are dependable, can be recharged easily, and are cost-efficient. Outside of major urban cities, the electric grid will not be able to supply the electricity needed to power EVs. Even then, major cities may not have power due to declining carbon-based power plants and unreliable wind/solar power plants. If climate change ideologues were honest, they would support nuclear energy. It is carbon dioxide-free, 24/7 reliable, cost-efficient, and not dependent upon CCP raw materials and technology.

The mining industry does not have the capacity to supply the minerals used in EVs. Much of the country will not be able to charge EVs economically, that is assuming consumers will buy them. The U.S. will end up like Cuba, where the citizens desperately work to keep old cars running. The climate will not be changed by a switch to EVs.

Summary

What is the purpose of this irrational green energy revolution? Is it to strengthen China and weaken America? China is the world’s biggest contributor to atmospheric carbon dioxide. China is building two coal-powered power plants per week, or six times more than any other country. The United States and the European Union are building none.

While Americans are committing societal suicide with the clean green energy revolution, the CCP is getting stronger. China does not have the gas, oil, and coal energy resources of the U.S. What China does have, is a stranglehold on rare earth minerals and lithium batteries------- all used by American green energy industries and the military. The U.S. is banning the export of high-tech chip technology. What would happen if China retaliates against the U.S. and bans rare earth exports as it did with Japan in 2010?

The United States must stop funding this green energy madness. If the product makes sense, the consumer will buy it. It should not be forced fed as it is in totalitarian societies.

Peace Through Strength

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Heavier EV’s not funding California Roadways

California has almost 400,000 miles of roadways used by the State’s 31 million vehicles. Those roadways are heavily dependent on road taxes from fuels that contribute more than $8.8 billion annually, the same gas tax revenues that also funds many environmental programs. That revenue source will be diminishing in the decades ahead as EV’s begin to replace internal combustion engine vehicles.

California Governor Gavin Newsom has mandated no sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles after 2035 but appears incapable of acknowledging EV’s currently contribute nothing for road maintenance and repairs and that EV’s are heavier than ICE vehicles and will be inflicting more wear and tear on California roadways.

Newsom’s silence on how California will finance the billions of dollars for the roads being used by those heavier EV’s is an indication that he will just pass that problem on to his predecessor. Newsom will not even discuss funding for future road maintenance as the EV mandate starts to negatively impact the revenue stream to maintain California roadways.

It’s public knowledge of Newsom’s dyslexia challenges that may hamper his ability to read reports that renewables and fossil fuels are not comparable for their support of humanity, but California voters support his avoidance of addressing those tough energy policy questions that would expose his limited energy literacy.

Regarding the high cost of energy in California, voters continue to be complacent with the state governments hidden taxes and mandates that contribute to the highest energy costs in America:

Fuels that are more than a dollar a gallon higher than the national average and

Electricity rates that are more than 60 percent higher than the national average and

Natural gas rates are more than 30 percent higher than the national average.

The California Governor may be experiencing a “dangerous delusion” of a global transition to “just electricity” that eliminates the use of the fossil fuels that made society achieve so much in a few centuries. From the proverb “you can't have your cake and eat it too” tells us that:
you can’t rid the world of fossil fuels and
continue to enjoy the products and fuels manufactured from fossil fuels.

Newsom may not be well read that there is little to compare between fossil fuels and renewables as fossil fuels are primarily used to manufacture products and fuels for humanity, while renewables manufacture nothing for humanity.
Fossil fuels make products for humanity that allowed the world to populate from 1 to 8 billion in 200 years.
Renewables cannot manufacture anything for humanity! The current rhetoric is falsely transitioning from apples to oranges, as renewables and fossil fuels are different.

To add insult to injury, those so-called renewables of wind and solar are 100 percent made from the products manufactured from fossil fuels!

The above insult pales to my disappointment that our elite leaders are oblivious to the fact that fossil fuels made it possible for humanity to grow from 1 to 8 billion in 200 years, because they can be manufactured into thousands of usable, life-enhancing and life-saving products. On the other hand, renewables can only generate occasional electricity, but cannot manufacture anything for humanity, while fossil fuels manufacture everything for humanity.

By contrast, “transitioning” humanity to just electricity means converting to wind and solar systems that can manufacture none of the vital products now being used by humanity. That will very likely cause the death of BILLIONS of people from diseases, malnutrition, lowered living standards and weather-related disasters, whereas projections of millions of fatalities from “carbon emissions” and climate change are based on computer models that take none of these realities into account.

National economies and nations’ militaries still run on fossil fuels. As both World War I and II historians Russia and China know, the country that controls the minerals, crude oil, and natural gas, controls the world! They both know there is no substitute for fossil fuel product dominance in the foreseeable future, even on a longer-term horizon. To believe a transition to just electricity from renewables is possible from the products manufactured from fossil fuels and act accordingly is suicidal for humanity. As former Congressman Don Ritter of Pennsylvania wrote “It’s the real “existential threat.”

In any event, you cannot run households, businesses, hospitals, and the military on occasional electricity and no products from fossil fuels!

EV buyers beware that the “tax equalizer”, higher electrical rates and/or the “VMT” is coming. The Vehicle Mileage Tax (VMT) that has been discussed for years sounds like a logical idea – requiring the users of the highways to pay the fees to maintain those highways. The VMT tax will be needed to replace the $8.8 billion annually from fuel sales that will be diminishing in the decades ahead.

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No More Cheap Flights Is the New Reality for Air Travel

Jetting off to the Mediterranean this summer? I hope you got a good deal, because cheap flights are becoming increasingly hard to find.

You probably had an inkling that the era of absurdly cheap short-haul flights in Europe was coming to an end. After all, according to travel search engine Kayak, summer flights between the UK and the continent are currently one-third more expensive than last year. But two new reports make it clear that this isn’t just temporary turbulence.

It’s the new reality for flying as airlines face a huge decarbonization challenge and tightening climate-compliance laws.

The first headwind stems from two big changes in the European Union’s Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). Airlines must have enough emissions allowances to cover every metric ton of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere on flights starting and ending in the European Economic Area, the UK and Switzerland. Right now, they get about half of those allowances for free. But that deal comes to an end in 2026, as the share of allowances they have to pay for starts to rise from 2024. That is effectively going to double their carbon costs over just three years.

The unit price of carbon emissions has also soared recently, topping €100 ($111) for the first time in late February, and it doesn’t seem to be on its way back down. A report by Alex Irving, European transport analyst at Bernstein, puts the resulting cost from these changes for European airlines at about €5 billion in 2027.

Polluting Price

The cost of emitting CO2 in Europe has nearly quadrupled from the 2019 average

That’s just the thin end of the wedge. Over the next three decades, aviation has to transform itself from a polluting industry — planes are responsible for 2.5% of global CO2 emissions — to a net-zero one. Under Destination 2050, the European sector’s plan to reduce emissions, it’ll do that by investing in future aircraft and infrastructure, making operations more efficient, and using alternative fuels and carbon-removal technologies.

A report by research groups SEO Amsterdam Economics and the Royal Netherlands Aerospace Centre, commissioned by airline industry bodies, has put the cost of reaching net zero by 2050 at a whopping €820 billion.

Destination: Net Zero

The biggest climate outlay for aviation will be on alternative fuels, but this also delivers the biggest carbon saving

Note: Costs/investments are from 2018-2050 and measures the premium expenditure on top of a business-as-normal scenario.

Both reports conclude the sector won’t be able to absorb these costs itself. The changes to the EU ETS alone will slash the operating profit of the continent’s six largest point-to-point airlines (Ryanair Holdings Plc, EasyJet Plc, Wizz Air Holdings Plc, Vueling, Eurowings and Transavia) by an estimated 77%. That means ticket prices will have to be higher, which in turn means that demand destruction is inevitable. As Irving writes: “If it were possible to charge more without spoiling demand, airlines would have already been doing so.”

Demand growth is a touchy subject for airlines, as a recent battle over proposed flight caps between the Dutch government and Amsterdam’s Schiphol airport illustrates. The forecasts are strong: The International Air Transport Association suggested that passenger numbers would nearly double to just under 8 billion by 2040 from 2017 levels. Time will tell if rising ticket prices dampen that, but the question remains whether growth is even compatible with ambitions for carbon-neutrality.

The answer might be hard to swallow. Decarbonizing flying is hard enough without the extra passengers. A briefing from the Royal Society, for example, outlined that even meeting existing UK aviation demand with biofuels would require about half of the country’s agricultural land.

Fewer flights is, naturally, the easiest way to slice carbon emissions, and so a demand drop would come with its own climate benefits. The aviation industry’s report calculates that, in 2050, the drop in demand from raising prices to pay for sustainable airplane fuel would reduce emissions by 12%, and economic measures — such as emissions-trading obligations and CO2 removal investments — would lead to a further 2% reduction, compared with a business-as-usual scenario.

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My other blogs. Main ones below

http://dissectleft.blogspot.com (DISSECTING LEFTISM )

http://edwatch.blogspot.com (EDUCATION WATCH)

http://pcwatch.blogspot.com (POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH)

http://australian-politics.blogspot.com (AUSTRALIAN POLITICS)

http://snorphty.blogspot.com/ (TONGUE-TIED)

http://jonjayray.com/blogall.html More blogs

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Tuesday, April 18, 2023



Disasters report features ‘crudely manipulated data’

The Global Warming Policy Foundation has called on the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) to withdraw its fatally flawed 2022 Disasters in Numbers report.

The Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), together with the Université Catholique de Louvain (UCLouvain), and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), recently published their 2022 report on “Disaster in Numbers.”

On its front cover, the report deceptively suggests that the 387 reported disasters, the loss of 30,704 lives, affecting 185 million individuals and causing economic damage of $223.8 billion are due to “climate in action” – although the report also covers earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides and wildfires.

The annual review of disasters of all kinds has been examined by extreme weather expert, Dr Ralph Alexander, who has published a strongly worded critique at his website.

Dr Alexander notes that:

* data has been crudely manipulated to suggest that there may be a hidden underlying increase in weather-related disasters

* false claims are made on the basis of statistically invalid comparisons.

GWPF director Dr Benny Peiser said:

“Dr Alexander has shown that the authors of the latest ‘Disasters in Numbers’ report are bending over backwards to provide support for the narrative of climate doom, when the data and trends of weather-related disasters are pointing in the opposite direction.

The Catholic University and United States Agency for International Development (USAID) should be ashamed of what is appearing in their name. This publication is fatally flawed and should be withdrawn.”

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The State of the Climate 2022

In his annual review of the state of the global climate, Professor Ole Humlum finds much of interest to readers, but little to alarm them.

There are some climate trends that support claims of climate concern – but many that do not.

For example, Professor Humlum draws attention to the patterns of ocean warming:

“The top of most oceans shows significant warming, but below the top layer there is very little. Further down you find warming again. This suggests that changes in ocean circulation are just as important as carbon-dioxide driven warming.”

Similarly, while the surface of the Antarctic and equatorial oceans have warmed in recent years, the Arctic ocean has cooled at almost all depths.

“There are far more factors to the climate than carbon dioxide”, says Professor Humlum.

The review covers a wide range of temperature measurements in both ocean and atmosphere, alongside reviews of oceanic oscillations, sea level, snow and ice measurements and storms.

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Eco-zealots cancel the snooker: World Championship game is postponed after Just Stop Oil protester jumped on table during match and tossed orange paint over it

What has snooker got to do with climate? This is just attention-seeking

A Just Stop Oil protester tossed orange paint over a snooker table during a World Championship game, causing the match to be cancelled this evening.

Two eco activists invaded the arena at the Crucible Theatre in Sheffield shortly after play began, with a man interrupting the match between Robert Milkins and Joe Perry by jumping on the table where he released a packet of orange dye.

A female protester was stopped from attacking the match between Mark Allen and Fan Zhengyi on table two by the quick-thinking response of referee Olivier Marteel.

Play was immediately suspended at the event as cleaners brought vacuum cleaners into the arena and master of ceremonies Rob Walker was among those helping to sweep up the mess.

Snooker fans jeered and booed the male activist as he interrupted play. One irritated fan shouted: 'Get him off!'

South Yorkshire Police said a 30-year-old man and a 52-year-old woman were arrested on suspicion of criminal damage and are in police custody.

The force said in a statement: 'Two people were detained after protesters gained entry to The Crucible earlier this evening.

'A 30-year-old man and a 52-year-old woman were arrested on suspicion of criminal damage. Both are in police custody.'

The affected table will be re-covered overnight.

It is the second time in three days that a major international sporting event has been disrupted, after 118 people were arrested at Aintree on Saturday as they tried to scale the perimeter fence at the Grand National

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The Climate Lunatics Have a New Food Target

Climate change lunatics who want to ban beef and force everyone to eat bugs have a new target.

According to AFP news, climate "scientists" are targeting rice farming as a "dangerous," emissions heavy practice. They say flooded rice fields, which then naturally ferment hay and other plants, produce too much methane.

According to National Geographic, rice is a main and key food source for 3.5 billion people.

"Rice is a food staple for more than 3.5 billion people around the world, particularly in Asia, Latin America, and parts of Africa. Rice has been cultivated in Asia for thousands of years. Scientists believe people first domesticated rice in India or Southeast Asia. Rice arrived in Japan in about 3,000 years ago. The Portuguese most likely introduced it into South America in the 16th century," the magazine reports. "Today, the world’s largest rice producers are China, India, and Indonesia. Outside of Asia, Brazil is the largest rice producer. Rice grows in warm, wet climates. It thrives in waterlogged soil, such as in the flood plains of Asian rivers like the Ganges and the Mekong. "Deepwater rice" is a variety of rice that is adapted to deep flooding, and is grown in eastern Pakistan, Vietnam, and Burma."

Meanwhile, Sri Lanka recently adopted a number of climate change policies on reducing fertilizer and caused a major food crisis.

"In April 2021, then-president Gotabaya Rajapaksa announced an abrupt ban on the import of chemical fertilisers to force the country of 22mn to embrace organic farming. The prohibition lasted only about six months, but analysts said the ill-fated policy not only stoked an economic crisis, it would leave Sri Lanka’s agricultural sector hobbled for years," the Financial Times reports. "Over the past 18 months, the country has become a cautionary tale for global agriculture. Vital inputs such as fuel and fertilisers are in short supply, with prices soaring. Yields from rice and other staples have halved in many areas and the once largely self-sufficient Indian Ocean island now depends on international aid to combat a hunger crisis."

There's no doubt a new climate attack on rice will have a catastrophic impact.

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My other blogs. Main ones below

http://dissectleft.blogspot.com (DISSECTING LEFTISM )

http://edwatch.blogspot.com (EDUCATION WATCH)

http://pcwatch.blogspot.com (POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH)

http://australian-politics.blogspot.com (AUSTRALIAN POLITICS)

http://snorphty.blogspot.com/ (TONGUE-TIED)

http://jonjayray.com/blogall.html More blogs

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Monday, April 17, 2023



A new super-careful estimate of a global temperature trend based on the satellite record

Some very sophisticated Chinese mathematicians have been at work. I reproduce their conclusions only below. The point to note is that they found a warming trend over the last 40 years of only fourteen hundredths of one degree per decade. I quote:

"the total tropospheric temperature trend derived from TMT was 0.142 ± 0.045 K/decade from 1979 to 2021".

That's about as tiny a trend as you can imagine and is certainly no cause for alarm. Global warming is totally trivial. It's to laugh at. The globe HAS been warming but at a not remotely catastrophic level. Whether ANY warming will take place in the future is unknown. Claims that it will are mere speculation based on a very dubious hypothesis of continuity.


Mid-Tropospheric Layer Temperature Record Derived From Satellite Microwave Sounder Observations With Backward Merging Approach

Cheng-Zhi Zou, Hui Xu, Xianjun Hao, Qian Liu

9 Conclusion

We have developed STAR V5.0 TMT time series for the period from late 1978 to present using a backward merging approach. The RTMT time series during 2002–present based on AMSU-A and ATMS observations onboard satellites in stable sun-synchronous orbits was used as the reference and earlier satellites before NOAA-19 were adjusted to RTMT in the backward merging. Brightness temperatures from NOAA-10 to NOAA-19 were recalibrated first before they were merged with RTMT and a semi-physical model was developed for diurnal drift adjustment. Adjustments of channel frequency differences between MSU and AMSU-A companion channels and instrument blackbody warm target effects were also conducted on observed radiances. The recalibration and adjustments for diurnal drift and warm target effects had effectively removed satellite bias drifts and resulted in inter-consistent satellite radiance data with small inter-satellite difference trends and standard deviations. Major differences in STAR V5.0 from the existing data sets is that recalibration has removed large spurious warming drifts in NOAA-11, NOAA-12, and NOAA-14 and a large cooling drift in NOAA-15 observations. The removal of the spurious warming drifts in NOAA-11 to NOAA-14 resulted in the warming trends in STAR V5.0 during 1979–2021 much smaller than the existing versions of the STAR and RSS data sets but close to the latest version of the UAH data set. After removal of the lower-stratospheric cooling effect, the total tropospheric temperature trend derived from TMT was 0.142 ± 0.045 K/decade from 1979 to 2021. This total trend was separated by two distinct periods with trends during the latest half period were nearly doubled the earlier half period over ocean and the globe, showing accelerating tropospheric warming. The estimated acceleration rate of the tropospheric warming was about 0.029–0.39 K decade−2 over ocean and the globe.

The STAR V5.0 data set. also include TUT, TLS and TLT time series. Similar backward merging approaches and diurnal adjustment algorithms as used in the TMT development were applied to TUT and TLS channels for their development. TLT is obtained using regressions of TMT, TUT, and TLS following approaches in Spencer et al. (2017).

The STAR V5.0 CDR for TLT, TMT, TUT, and TLS is publicly accessible from the STAR website with a URL address: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/mscat/products.php . Plans are also being developed to transition the STAR V5.0 data set to NOAA/NCEI for operational archiving and distribution for user applications.

The cut-off dates for MSU and AMSU-A observations used in STAR V5.0 from all earlier satellites were before the end of 2018. Future update of STAR V5.0 will only need update of the ATMS observations in RTMT. The update of the monthly RTMT has been made every month for ATMS observations onboard SNPP and NOAA-20. Future JPSS satellites such as JPSS-2 are planned to be launched onto the same stable orbits as in SNPP and NOAA-20. When ATMS observations from these satellites are available, they will be simply added to RTMT without the need for diurnal drift adjustment. Such a STAR V5.0 data set is expected to extend to the next 20 years for climate change monitoring and assessment in the atmospheric temperatures.

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Los Angeles Is Sitting on $1B for Water Storage

The old Greenie hatred of dams. CA is the last place to build new ones

As the West faces extended droughts and water shortages, Los Angeles officials thought they would get ahead of the curve by investing about $1 billion into water storage solutions. Now, four years later, the droughts are intensifying while that money sits unspent, according to the according to The New York Times.

The Times reports that California used to have a state-of-the-art flood control system, with dams and channels to control flooding from heavy storms. However, more frequent and intense droughts are creating a greater demand for stored water, but the systems are not designed to hold back much water, meaning tens of billions of gallons are flowing back into the Pacific Ocean.

To remedy this, LA County began collecting money to increase the storage capacity of their flood control systems. Over four years, it has collected around $1 billion, but has yet to spend most of it.

Regarding the slow pace of expenditures and lack of plans, the Times writes that, “The era of great dam building passed long ago, owing largely to the multifronted environmental wars California is fighting and the county has been slow to adopt alternatives.”

Now, bureaucrats are proposing spending $300 million per year on hundreds of small water capture projects that, in 30 to 50 years, could hold as much water as just building a new mountain dam. Experts are already warning, however, that this “greener” approach “will be expensive and may deliver less than expected,” despite the project not even starting yet.

LA County could use its taxpayers’ money to improve the quality of life of its citizens, but thanks to a strong environmental lobby and a slow-moving bureaucracy, residents are left with less money and less water.

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Activist warns global push to add bugs to the menu is part of alarming trend

One activist, however, warns the trend is more sinister than an alternative protein source.

“I think that the push for insect eating is just a compliance test because our politicians know that when they control the food, they control the people,” Dutch political activist Eva Vlaardingerbroek said on “Tucker Carlson Tonight” Friday.

Previewing a new season of “Tucker Carlson Originals” on Fox Nation, Vlaardingerbroek provided insight into the bug food industry which she argued will “influence the food supply worldwide.”

“The fact that we, the second-largest exporter of agricultural products in the world, our nation with such a rich farming history, is now cracking down on its farms and opening insect factories should be of no surprise to you. This is not something that is just going to affect the food supply of the Netherlands. Like I said, we’re the second-largest exporter of agricultural products in the world after America. So this will influence the food supply worldwide. And we’ve spoken to farmers who said, well, this could lead to actual starvation if we’re not careful,” she said.

However, political activist Eva Vlaardingerbroek said on “Tucker Carlson Tonight,” “the push for insect eating is just a compliance test because our politicians know that when they control the food, they control the people.”

At the World Economic Forum, voices like founder and executive chairman Klaus Schwab made climate change a focal point of the conversations surrounding the global economy and future policies.

Warnings like “an extinction of large parts of our global population” were shared from center stage, and bugs have gradually been championed as one solution to the climate crisis.

Professor Arnold Van Huis at Wageningen University argued that it is “absolutely necessary” to adopt bugs into the food system. “I think there is no other way,” he said on the Fox Nation show. “It’s the only way to go, but it will take some time.”

The trend has caught the eye of celebrities and influencers including big names like actress Nicole Kidman.

Emerging on the scene are also chefs and culinary experts trying to make the bugs more appetizing.

Chef Joseph Yoon is an Edible Foods Ambassador for Brooklyn Bugs works to create recipes with the creepy crawlers. “We work to raise awareness and appreciation for sustainable forms of protein,” Yoon said on “Let Them Eat Bugs.”

“How can we sustainably feed the growing population around the world? And it doesn’t suggest that we want to get rid of anything. How do we add something to our diets and maybe look towards the past for solutions for the future? They’re incredibly nutritious. They’re sustainable, but most importantly, they can be prepared absolutely deliciously.”

Carlson tried some of Yoon’s creations including a chocolate-covered cricket, cricket caramel corn and even a cricket burger on “Tucker Carlson Tonight” Friday.

While new recipes may be making the trend more easily digestible, critics like Vlaardingerbroek remain skeptical of the big bug business.

“They’re telling us that it’s good for the climate, that this is the way that we can save the planet and that that little steak that you have on your plate that gives you some joy in life is what actually ruins the world. And of course, none of that is true,” she said.

Vlaardingerbroek, who also appears in “Tucker Carlson Originals: Let Them Eat Bugs,” argued that while bugs may not inherently be an issue to bring in to a diet, it is the politics behind the insects that raise red flags.

“Nobody’s being asked. And I think that that’s the point. Nobody really inherently wants to eat bugs,” she told Carlson.

With the transformation of our food system and diet away from meat to insects, there are also ramifications on farmers which the Netherlands has experienced firsthand.

“We’ve had massive protests. So our farmers’ protests that you and I have been speaking about plenty of times now and that also have been featured in this documentary, they’ve been very successful,” she said.

“We actually had elections just now in the Netherlands where… actually the largest party was the Farmers Party. So the Dutch people don’t want to be eating insects. We understand that a traditional profession such as farming that we have been good at for centuries on end is not the cause of a modern-day so-called crisis such as climate change.”

The fear is whether global elites are using the bug industry and climate change as another method of controlling the global population.

“It’s all a fantasy, it’s all a new religion. And it’s a scary religion because, of course, once the people are scared, the people in power can do whatever they want,” Dutch politician Wybren Van Haga said on “Let Them Eat Bugs.”

“So we have to be fearful and scared for COVID, for nitrogen, for carbon dioxide, for Putin. We have to be scared for everything, and meanwhile these people who are in power, now they do whatever they want.”

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Biden Admin Affirms Trump-Era Decision to Export Natural Gas From Alaska

The Department of Energy (DOE) on Thursday affirmed a Trump-era decision to export liquified natural gas (LNG) from a facility in Alaska.

Under the Trump administration, in 2020, a company called Alaska LNG was authorized to export LNG to any country with which the United States has not entered into a free trade agreement (FTA).

In a supplemental record of decision (pdf) issued by the department on April 13, Biden administration officials reaffirmed the original authorization in 2020. However, they also amended the project to include more restrictions intended to protect the environment.

The decision on April 13 comes after the Sierra Club, an organization that seeks to “fight for environmental and social justice,” in September 2020 filed a Request for Rehearing over the matter.

The department had agreed to the request to look further into the project’s environmental impacts, after which it would either reaffirm, modify, or set aside the Trump-era authorization.

“Upon review, DOE finds that the environmental impacts presented … are not sufficient to alter DOE’s determination … that exports of LNG from the proposed Alaska LNG Project to non-FTA countries are not inconsistent with the public interest,” the department stated.

One Change

As such, the department affirmed the original Trump-era order but with one modification that was an amendment the Sierra Club recommended: Alaska LNG is required to certify each month that the natural gas produced for export in LNG form “did not result in the venting of byproduct carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere, unless required for emergency, maintenance, or operational exigencies and in compliance with the FERC Order for the Alaska LNG Project.”

“DOE believes that this venting prohibition will reduce emissions of [greenhouse gases] from the Alaska LNG Project beyond what may have occurred under the Alaska LNG Order.”

Otherwise, other parts of the authorization remain the same.

The LNG pipeline and export project was estimated in June 2020 to cost $38.7 billion. It was first proposed in 2014 by the Alaska Gasline Development Corp (AGDC), which was tasked with maximizing the state’s natural gas reserves by the Alaskan legislature, and is leading the project.

Construction of the Alaska LNG project was authorized in May 2020 by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). According to plans, the project would include a liquefaction facility in the Nikiski area of the Kenai Peninsula in south-central Alaska, a natural gas treatment plant on the North Slope of Alaska to produce natural gas, and a 800-mile pipeline to carry the natural gas from the North Slope to the liquefaction facility.

AGDC has been seeking buyers for exports, but it has not reached a final vestment decision on whether to start construction, an Energy Department spokesperson told the Anchorage Daily News.

“Alaska LNG is authorized to export this LNG in a volume equivalent to 929 billion cubic feet per year (Bcf/yr) of natural gas (2.55 Bcf per day), by vessel from a liquefaction facility … in the Nikiski area of the Kenai Peninsula in south central Alaska,” reads the DOE’s document.

Altogether, Alaska LNG “is authorized to export LNG from the Project for a total of 33 years—a 30-year export term, with an additional three-year Make-Up Period to export any LNG that it was unable to export during the 30-year export term.”

The latest move comes a month after the Biden administration approved the $8 billion Willow oil field development project to allow the company ConocoPhillips to drill for oil over three decades.

It also comes a year after the Biden administration expanded exports of LNG to Europe. President Joe Biden announced an agreement in March 2022 that committed the U.S. LNG industry to supply 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) more of LNG to Europe for the remainder of the year.

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My other blogs. Main ones below

http://dissectleft.blogspot.com (DISSECTING LEFTISM )

http://edwatch.blogspot.com (EDUCATION WATCH)

http://pcwatch.blogspot.com (POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH)

http://australian-politics.blogspot.com (AUSTRALIAN POLITICS)

http://snorphty.blogspot.com/ (TONGUE-TIED)

http://jonjayray.com/blogall.html More blogs

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Sunday, April 16, 2023



Biden's Fascistic EV Edict

David Harsanyi writing below knows his history: That Fascism was Leftist. In the 1920s Mussolini was a prominent Marxist intellectual. It is only Soviet disinformation that has propagated the myth that Fascism was Rightist

President Joe Biden is set to "transform" and "remake" the entire auto industry -- "first with carrots, now with sticks" -- notes the Washington Post, as if dictating the output of a major industry is within the governing purview of the executive branch. The Environmental Protection Agency is proposing draconian emissions limits for vehicles, ensuring that 67% of all new passenger cars and trucks produced within nine years will be electric. This is state coercion. It is undemocratic. We are not governed; we are managed.

In fascist economies, a powerful centralized state -- often led by a demagogue who plays on the nationalistic impulses of people -- controls both manufacturing and commerce and dictates prices and wages for the "common good." Any unpatriotic excessive profits are captured by the state. All economic activity must meet state approval. And crony, rent-seeking companies are willing participants. Now, I'm not saying we already live in a fascist economic state. I'm just saying the Democratic Party economic platform sounds like it wishes we were.

The coverage of Biden's edict has gone exactly as one might expect. "Biden makes huge push for electric vehicles. Is America ready?" asks Politico, for instance. The conceit of so much modern media coverage rests on the assumption that the left's ideas are part of an inevitable societal evolution toward enlightenment. The only question remaining is when will the slaw-jawed yokels in Indiana and Texas finally catch on.

I'm sorry, EVs are not a technological advancement -- or much of an environmental one -- over vehicles with internal combustion engines. Most of the comforts EV makers like to brag about have been a regular feature of gas-powered cars for decades. At best, EVs are a lateral technology. And, as far as practicality, cost and comfort go, they're a regression. If EVs are more efficient and save us money, as administration officials claim, manufacturers would not have to be compelled and bribed into producing them.

The problem for Democrats is that consumers already have perfectly useful and affordable gas-powered cars that, until recently, could be cheaply fueled and driven long distances without stopping for long periods of time. Fossil fuels -- also the predominant energy source used to power electric cars -- are the most efficient, affordable, portable and useful form of energy. We have a vast supply of it. In recent years, we've become the world's largest oil producer. There are tens of billions of easily accessible barrels of fossil fuels here at home and vast amounts around the world. By the time we run out, if ever, we will have invented far better ways to move vehicles than plugging an EV battery -- which is made by emitting twice as many gases into the air as a traditional car engine -- into an antiquated windmill.

"I want to let everybody know that this EPA is committed to protecting the health and well-being of every single person on this planet," the EPA's Michael Regan explained when announcing the edicts. No one is safer in an EV than a gas-powered vehicle. The authoritarian's justification for economic control is almost always "safety." But the entire "safety" claim is tethered to the perpetually disproven theory that our society can't safely -- and relatively cheaply -- adapt to slight changes in climate. If the state can regulate "greenhouse gases" as an existential threat, it has the unfettered power to regulate virtually the entire economy. This is why politicians treat every hurricane, tornado and flood as an apocalyptic event. But in almost every quantifiable way, the climate is less dangerous to mankind now than it has ever been. And the more they try to scare us, the less people care.

So let the Chinese communists worry about keeping their population "safe." Let's keep this one innovative, open and free.

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Population Bomb' Morphing Into Population Decline: There is no reasoning with the doom-and-gloom ecofascists

There are many alternate religions created by secular leftism. For example, you have the gender ideology cult, the critical race theorists, and the pro-abortion group. But perhaps the most pagan of secular leftism's alternate religions are the climate activists, specifically the climate doom-and-gloomers who have resigned themselves to the end of humanity's existence.

As this writer has pointed out before, end-of-the-world climate cultists have been around for a very long time. Not a single one of their predictions have come true.

One of the most famous theories was posited by Paul Ehrlich, writer of The Population Bomb. He suggested in his infamous book that overpopulation was a clear and present danger for the world. In other words, people are the pollution. This is a patently absurd stance since it is the new and younger generation that takes up the mantle, develops new things, and continues to build society. The birth decline we are seeing all over the world, but particularly in the United States, will cause the economy to take a hit.

Yet the supposed dangers of overpopulation have been so embedded in the American psyche "that people with large families are guilt-tripped on a routine basis," according to political analyst Robert Spencer. "The population explosion myth became the basis for many of the Left's other favored agendas, including the 'climate crisis,' the bug-eating plan, and even the sexual revolution, which was in large part made possible by the contraception and abortion that we were told had to be readily available in order to try to bring the world's population under control."

However, this climate-induced hysteria directed toward reproduction of the human species has taken an interesting twist.

In a study financed by a group called Club of Rome and carried out by a group called Earth4All, the findings suggest that the world population will peak at 8.8 billion and then rapidly decline. This sounds like a debunking of the "population bomb" myth; however, when you read further, the machinations become more sinister.

According to The Guardian, "The peak could come earlier still if governments take progressive steps to raise average incomes and education levels." What on earth could that mean?

Communism. It means communism. The writers of the study even tell us so.

One of the Earth4All study authors, Ben Callegari, said of the results: "This gives us evidence to believe the population bomb won't go off, but we still face significant challenges from an environmental perspective. We need a lot of effort to address the current development paradigm of overconsumption and overproduction, which are bigger problems than population."

An article in New Scientist declares that this Earth4All study prediction could be escalated by "reducing inequity." This government-facilitated (read: communist) redistribution of goods and services could accelerate the population decline to six billion. The writers of this article seem to be issuing a warning, but they also seem to be completely fine with the Maoist-style communist ideology that is driving this new study.

So, to paraphrase writer James Lindsay, the debunking of the population bomb with this study is merely a premise to explain why communism is the way of the future (or the manifesto of the Marxist Death Cult). The study writers and the New Scientist writers demand that everyone makes environmentally friendly changes so that perhaps the decline won't be so bad.

Sound familiar? It's just another way of manipulating gullible people down the path of the pagan sun monster hysteria, threatening that unless you give them more power, more control, and more obedience, the world will end, and it's your fault.

This communistic taint is infecting everything and should keep us on our guard.

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Straw Ban Arguments

A few years ago, a moral panic spread across the globe as governments, companies, and right-minded celebrities united to banish plastic straws from respectable society. The impetus for the crusade came after a decade of data about the imminent environmental dangers of single-use plastic. Most of all, however, one peculiarly specific number inflamed the activist imagination, a single statistic lodging itself deep in the conservationist’s bleeding heart: 500 million plastic straws are used in the United States every day.

But a movement cannot live on numbers alone. And into this minefield of climate alarmism, fate tossed a tortoise, when marine biologist Christine Figgener uploaded an amateur video of a maimed sea turtle in Costa Rica with a plastic straw stuck in its nose. Every crusade needs a martyr. 39 million views later the straw movement had its poster turtle.

Society’s shapeless eco-panic consolidated around a tangible villain: the single-use straw—and concerned citizens around the globe answered the call to arms. First came the nonprofits as snappy, single-issue campaigns started popping up around the web: The Last Plastic Straw, For a Strawless Ocean, Our Last Straw, and Straw Wars. Entourage star Adrian Grenier launched the Lonely Whale nonprofit which led to the “Strawless in Seattle” initiative, and the Surfrider Foundation dubbed 2018 “the year we say goodbye to plastic straws.” Then the TED Talk phase arrived, and a string of precocious child activists were trotted out on the lecture circuit with recycling testimonials that scanned as first drafts of future college application essays. Nine-year-old Molly Steer announced the “Straw No More” initiative on the TEDx stage in Australia, while the brother-sister team Olivia and Carter Ries introduced their nationwide “One Less Straw” campaign as teenagers in 2016.

Then Hollywood joined the cause. Brooklyn Decker and Neil deGrasse Tyson starred in viral PSAs for the #stopsucking campaign—which elicited 50,000 pledges to give up plastic straws and amassed 831 million media impressions. Influencers from Leonardo DiCaprio to Chelsea Clinton vowed their hashtag loyalty to the #stopsucking revolution, and the issue took a victory lap as icons from Martha Stewart to Tom Brady shared their social media endorsement throughout 2018.

Where celebrities tweet, brands soon follow. Alaska Airlines replaced stir straws with “marine-friendly stir sticks” to take the “next step on our sustainability journey.” Royal Caribbean bid a bon voyage to single-use straws as part of their “Save the Waves” initiative. Hyatt, McDonald’s, and Disney phased out the shameful suckers in the name of climate compassion, while IKEA publicly exhibited its last plastic straw at London’s Design Museum as an “emblem for change.” Most conspicuously, Starbucks announced in July 2018 it would replace its signature green straws with recyclable lids to honor the company’s “long history in sustainability.”

On the back of this PR tailwind, the anti-straw zeal glided effortlessly from press release to policy proposal, as governments around the world wrote plastic purges into law. Seattle became the first major American city to bar single-use straws in July 2018. Other progressive strongholds soon passed similar legislation, and California became the first state to ban nonrequested straws in September 2018. India barred single-use straws by 2022, and France went one step further to outlaw plastic cups in 2020. Even Queen Elizabeth insisted that the sinful silicate be purged from the royal estate. The campaign’s sudden, intercontinental success offers a case study in what might be called the iron law of internet activism: viral animal video + quotable scare stat = “great moral cause of our time,” or at least until the next cute cat collides with a scaremonger stat on Twitter.

But what about that original statistic that launched a thousand hashtags? Where did this estimate of 500 million daily straws come from? The answer: a 9-year-old boy in Vermont. And the story of how this number goes from an elementary school to public policy reveals something essential but rather disconcerting about the progressive political imagination in the age of social media, and how misinformation takes root and then spreads in today’s highly politicized media ecosystem.

The year is 2011, and Milo Cress is in fourth grade in Burlington, Vermont. In the spirit of personal conservation, the 9-year-old launches the “Be Straw Free” campaign to persuade neighborhood restaurants and “concerned citizens to reduce the use and waste of disposable plastic straws.” Due to the lack of reliable figures on the issue, the fourth-grader decides to conduct a phone survey with three national manufacturers and averaged the results to reach the estimate that the country consumes 500 million straws each day. Our fledgling activist promptly earns adoring local and national coverage. Then in 2012, the nonprofit Eco-Cycle picks up Milo’s campaign and partners with the National Parks Service to publish a blog post on Milo’s research. And once a statistic enters the hallowed ground of a dot.gov URL—voila—the number is now enshrined as fact-checking gospel. Five years later, the 500 million figure is everywhere: appearing in CNN, USA Today, The Washington Post, Fox News, NPR, National Geographic, and The New York Times. The number graces U.N. climate reports, nonprofit white papers, and proposed bills in statehouses from Hartford to Sacramento. Climbing from a fourth grade classroom in Burlington Elementary to the governor’s desk in Sacramento in seven short years—Milo’s statistic grew up to be somebody.

It is important to note—in the name of context—that other straw counts from professional research groups are more conservative than Milo’s number. The market research firm Technomic estimates Americans use 170 million straws per day, and the Freedonia Group puts the number at 390 million. The Foodservice Packaging Institute, an 85-year-old trade association, estimates fewer than 250 million straws are consumed each day. But I did not write this piece to quibble with the venerable Foodservice Packaging Institute about their daily straw quotas—for my concern is not quantifying what Americans drink but qualifying how Americans think.

The viral success of Milo’s statistic is a symptom of a larger liberal failing—where the combination of complacent journalism, social media activism, and gullible audiences hungry for easy solutions come together to divert the energy for reform toward strawman causes. On closer examination, disposable straws are hardly Public Enemy No. 1 in the war on plastic. A 2018 study of the Pacific Waste Patch found that the main aqua pollutant was fishing nets (46%) and only 8% came from microplastics. While straws do make up 4% of total plastic trash by piece, they weigh so little that billions of straws make up just 0.0002% of the plastic littering the oceans each year. To add it all up: Straws account for 2,000 tons of the 9 million tons of annual plastic sea waste— or two ten-thousandths of the world’s marine pollution.

There is another issue: Alternatives to straws often prove more harmful to the environment than the status quo. To take one example, Starbucks replaced their old straw-and-lid combo with a recyclable “sippy” lid. But when Verify’s Jason Puckett weighed both the classic and the new Starbucks lid, he discovered the new “sustainable” version is 0.6 grams heavier than the old. In other words, the alternative out-pollutes the original.

To summarize, the straw ban is a policy based on unverified data from an elementary school student targeting a microscopic problem which often aggravates the malady it attempts to remedy. So how did we get here? Why did this policy become the cause célèbre for the climate cognoscenti?

What people choose to believe and what they choose to doubt is an urgent question in American political life. In a sharply polarized culture, skepticism tends to follow party lines. The right naturally distrusts liberal claims, and the left instinctively suspects conservative arguments. When presented with statistics that challenge one’s core values, most partisan soldiers will scrutinize the number for potential bias or prejudices—will look for the flaws in the source, not the subject. In this sense, skepticism is primarily a defensive weapon in politics, guarding against misinformation from outside rather than within the group. Yet when one encounters a data point that meets your preexisting worldview, you’re inclined to accept rather than interrogate. Scruples dissolve in the warm glow of self-validation. Thus, the critical eye melts into a forgiving ear ... especially when the big-ticket issues of the left enter the public square.

The consequences of this disparity are magnified by the liberal monopoly on legacy journalism jobs (where only 7% of journalists were Republicans in 2013). In such an uneven landscape, certain subjects earn maximal scrutiny while other agendas receive minimal scrutiny at a systematic scale. Add in the looming specter of “cancel culture,” and this discrepancy in coverage can evolve, in some newsrooms, from an honest oversight to a moral imperative. Even reporting statistics that complicate the prevailing progressive viewpoint is increasingly controversial at many high-profile outlets. (In just one example, Matthew Yglesias sparked an office scandal at Vox by publishing a story about the decrease in police shootings of African Americans since Ferguson.) The more sensitive the topic, the less contravening evidence will be tolerated in certain left-wing circles. Thus, the most important progressive issues of the day often have the least informed, nuanced discussions.

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Australia: Grave doubts about the accuracy of BOM records

They are frantically trying to cover up the distortions in what they have done

A dispute over how the Bureau of Meteorology records daily temperatures is hotting up, with the release of more than 1000 pages of data that show new probes can record different temperatures to mercury thermometers in the same location at the same time.

The documents, released after a years-long Freedom of Information campaign, show temperature measurements taken using updated BOM probes in automatic weather stations at the Brisbane Airport site could be up to 0.7C warmer than the temperature taken using a traditional thermometer at the same time at the same site.

More than three years after a FOI request for parallel data was lodged by scientist John Abbot, the BOM released three years of data on Easter eve after the matter was taken to the Administrative Appeals Tribunal.

In the end, the BOM released only limited data, paving the way for a wave of FOI demands that full records be released in the public interest.

Release of the data is the first opportunity to analyse the performance of BOM probes alongside mercury thermometers. The bureau has long claimed the readings are identical but critics have said the BOM was not following World Met­eor­­ological Organisation guidelines on how they should be used.

Given that even small variations in temperature recordings can have an impact on the long-term record, accuracy is vital.

The main issue is how well temperatures recorded by new technologies can be compared to earlier methods to establish a continuous record.

The BOM maintains that an assessment of the full 2019-22 period at Brisbane Airport finds no significant difference between the probe and mercury thermometers.

Yet analysis of the data by scientist Jennifer Marohasy has found a statistically significant difference exists. Over the three-year period for which records have been made available, probes returned temperatures higher than the mercury thermometers placed alongside them 41 per cent of the time.

Recordings were the same 32.8 per cent of the time and lower 25.9 per cent of the time.

Dr Marohasy said the BOM had not disputed that the probe at Brisbane Airport had recorded up to 0.7C warmer than the ­mercury at the same site at the same time.

She said the bureau had not provided comment on the ­actual difference daily between temperatures as measured by the probe and the mercury, nor the average monthly or annual difference between the probe and the mercury.

In response to questions from The Weekend Australian, the ­bureau said it “verifies temperature probes to ensure that they are within specification”. The BOM said the temperature measurement system at Brisbane Airport was verified 24 times between January 2008 and July last year.

“Probes undergo a verification test in situ to ensure the probe is operating within specification”, it said. “If the result of this test is that the probe is outside of its operating specification, it is replaced with a laboratory-verified probe.

“A second verification test is undertaken to ensure it is compliant with the specification. “This verification process is more rigorous and reliable than recalibration.”

The documents released by the BOM under the FOI request included 1094 A8 reports with the handwritten daily maximum and minimum temperatures from both probes and traditional ­liquid-in-glass thermometers recorded from instruments in the same shelter/Stevenson screen.

They represent about 20 per cent of the parallel records held for the Brisbane airport site, one of 38 sites originally requested under FOI.

Dr Marohasy said analysis of the Brisbane airport data proved the BOM claim that the new probes had been specially developed to measure exactly the same temperatures as the mercury thermometers was wrong. Dr Marohasy has had a years long dispute with the BOM over the accuracy of the new probes and what she says is a failure by it to adhere to WMO guidelines to average the data recorded and maintain mercury thermometers alongside new technologies for an extended period.

“Readings from the probe are taken every second, and the highest value in a 24-hour period becomes the maximum temp­erature for that day. WMO guidelines recommend that instantaneous readings from probes be averaged over at least one minute”, she said.

Dr Marohasy said the difference in readings between probes and mercury thermometers was significant.

“Given new ‘hottest ever’ days are often called and make newspaper headlines when the temperature is only some fractions of a degree warmer, future new record hot days could be a consequence of the probe rather than global warming”.

“This has implications for the artificial generation of new record hot temperatures”, she said.

The other key issue was that Brisbane Airport parallel data showed a dramatic change in the difference between the mercury and probe temperature readings after December 2019.

“It is important to know whether this average difference of 0.35C had been caused by a recalibration of the probe that is the official recording instrument at Brisbane Airport”, she said.

Dr Abbot said he would request further parallel data sets from the BOM and was hopeful that previous barriers to access in regard of the existence of these records and costs would not reoccur. “Under FOI legislation, fee waivers should be granted as the information derived is clearly in the public interest” Dr Abbot said.

“We hope previous assertions from the BOM that analysis of parallel temperature data is only of benefit to John Abbot personally and has no public interest will not reoccur,” he said.

“The public is constantly being told of impending global catastrophe should temperatures rise by more than 1.5C. Discrepancies of more than 0.5C because of instrumentation differences are therefore very significant, and certainly should satisfy the public interest test”, Dr Abbot said.

“Different measuring instruments have been used to record temperatures at Brisbane Airport. Given the importance of reliable continuous records, it is important to know whether these instruments are recording the same temperatures, or not. The parallel data so far made available constitutes only a small portion of what the BOM holds.

“It is important to extend the analyses to longer periods and for other geographical locations.”

Dr Abbot first requested the parallel data for Brisbane Airport on December 12, 2019.

The case eventually went before the AAT on February 3, 2023, and was subsequently resolved with the bureau agreeing to provide three years of data.

Dr Marohasy said the data represented just three of the 14.5 years (January 2008 to July 2022) of parallel data that the bureau held for Brisbane Airport.

“It is also just a fraction of the 760 years of parallel data the bureau holds for 38 different locations spread across the landmass of Australia,” she said.

Probes in automatic weather stations began replacing mercury thermometers across Australia and the world 30 years ago.

Dr Marohasy said the probes were generally more sensitive to changes in temperature, so they could measure extremes of temperatures that traditional mercury thermometers with slower response times could not detect.

Most meteorological offices tried to achieve equivalence between the probes and mercury by averaging instantaneous recordings from probes over 1-5 minutes.

Dr Marohasy said the BOM adopted took instantaneous readings every second from custom-designed probes with longer time constants purported to mimic mercury thermometers.

The bureau has claimed in correspondence with Dr Marohasy that it never averaged measurements from probes.

Bureau chief executive Andrew Johnson has told her the probes were specifically designed to have a long response time to mirror the behaviour of mercury in glass, making numerical averaging unnecessary.

Dr Marohasy said the lack of numerical averaging despite the use of probes made the BOM measurements unique in the world.

She said equivalence was important for the construction of reliable historical temperature datasets, for understanding temperature trends and for knowing whether a record hot day as measured automatically by a probe­­ ­really was hotter than what might have been read manually from a mercury thermomete

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My other blogs. Main ones below

http://dissectleft.blogspot.com (DISSECTING LEFTISM )

http://edwatch.blogspot.com (EDUCATION WATCH)

http://pcwatch.blogspot.com (POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH)

http://australian-politics.blogspot.com (AUSTRALIAN POLITICS)

http://snorphty.blogspot.com/ (TONGUE-TIED)

http://jonjayray.com/blogall.html More blogs

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